CHECK THE COMPARISON
Do these figures
belong together?
Before using two safety statistics to make a decision, put their source labels side by side. Find what is missing or does not match—without inventing a “times safer” answer.
One comparison. Five checks.
Keep both sources open. Copy their labels into Figure A and Figure B (up to 200 characters each), then record what you found. Choose “Unclear” when a source does not say. Your text stays in this tab; this worksheet does not save or send it.
This worksheet organizes your reading. It does not verify your entries or establish comparability, a safer option, a personal probability or a travel recommendation. Methods, coverage and uncertainty still matter.
The five-point check below works without entering anything.
Use the five-point check without entering anything
- People and outcome. Who is counted, and what happened? Check the population and outcome in both sources. Passenger fatalities and all road fatalities are not automatically the same numerator.
- Geography. Which countries or regions are covered? A grouped-country estimate is not automatically a worldwide or single-country figure.
- Observation years. Use the years measured, not just the page's publication date. Check whether the periods match and whether they answer your current question.
- Exposure unit. Is the figure per passenger boarding, vehicle-mile, flight hour or something else? Rescaling a count from per 100 million to per million does not change the underlying unit.
- Mode definitions. Check that each source covers the intended kind of flying or road travel. Different mode names alone are not a mismatch: the question is whether both definitions fit the comparison you want to make.
Check once for missing definitions. If you cannot match the labels, set that numerical comparison aside. Even aligned labels do not settle differences in methods, coverage or uncertainty.
A mismatch you can spot
A passenger-boarding rate and a vehicle-mile rate have different exposure units. Changing the scale of the numbers does not make those units match.
Where this check comes from
Adapted from Ah’s reviewed five-point comparison guide. Sources checked 2026-10-09; review due 2027-04-07.
- MIT News: Study: Flying keeps getting safer
Institutional account of research, not direct inspection of the journal paper; historical grouped airline estimate, not a particular flight prediction.
- Bureau of Transportation Statistics: Fatality Rates by Mode
Historical table inspected for differing units only; not a current mode ranking or basis for numerical ratios. Road columns use vehicle-miles, aviation columns flight-hours.
The historical sources explain scope and unit differences. They do not provide a matched, current ranking for your journey.