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How we explain risk

Start with the outcome, population, geography, exposure unit and time window. A fatality rate is not an accident rate. A boarding is not a passenger-mile. A group average is not your exact odds.

Calculations stay inspectable.

Arithmetic runs in code using explicit inputs and assumptions. The flight tool uses numerically stable repeated-exposure arithmetic. Comparisons require compatible units and scope; we do not force a ranking when the data do not support it.

Sources and uncertainty

We use official sources, research publications and institutional accounts, and disclose which surface we actually inspected. A citation or source hash preserves provenance; it does not prove a claim true. Missing estimates remain missing.

Refresh and corrections

Empirical rate guides have an evidence review due date, initially six months after publication. New data or a material error can trigger earlier review. A date check does not guarantee that evidence remains current.

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